How optimistic are you on Northern Ireland’s 5-year economic future?

David Bloch, MD of the Brightwater Group comments:

I admit that these were the most surprising and disappointingly pessimistic poll answers.  I was probably expecting a pretty even spread of about 33% in each category.  I wonder whether it is a malaise with and about Northern Ireland, or just a generally negative view of the state of the world, and Europe’s economy in particular? 

I have presented and published a lot over the last few years, attempting to mix logic with fact.  The facts are all out there now and being spoken about more.  Northern Ireland’s GDP looks good and ahead of the UK.  Unemployment has come down and the labour force has increased.  Many companies have moved operations to NI. Population is increasing. FDI increasing.  Exports increasing.  The only thing that is of obvious concern is the shrinking of the public sector… but then again, no country ever hit the heights through having a large public sector!

I cannot see how Northern Ireland cannot reach heights greater than ever before… unless Europe messes it up for us completely!  NB. I can see how one small country can cut spending and yet grow through exports, but if everybody goes down the austerity route (major economies like France and Italy) then we all sink together!  If no one is spending, then no one can take up the slack and our exports will sink with the rest!  Northern Ireland still has some way to go to even be on a bar with the UK (for example our salaries are 17% lower – and therefore costs, including property).  There is plenty of growth left for us to exploit. 

The only other way we cannot reach the heights is if we steadfastly believe that we can’t and won’t.  This seems to me the most likely reason for these results.  We don’t believe in ourselves, we therefore don’t spend, don’t invest and don’t grow.  Business and life is like the game Monopoly.  You cannot win without speculating – and yet you are more likely to lose quickly if you do speculate.  We must therefore continue to take risks, and we must respect and help the brave men and women (entrepreneurs) who take chances. 

Finally, I suspect that we have more ‘candidates’ taking the poll than ‘clients’ because many of our clients are very positive about the present and the future.  Only very positive people take chances and get way out in front.  I think a poll of MD’s would produce a much more positive set of results.

Oh well, let’s hope I’m right and the poll is wrong… for all our sakes!

Next time, we’d be really keen to hear your answer to the question below, so please take a moment to answer the following question:

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