Would the Opposition have done any better?

David Bloch, MD of the Brightwater Group comments:

I admit, I’m really surprised by the statistics! I’ve been following the poll for the last 2 weeks, when faith in the opposition parties to have done a better job than the Government was about 35%. It has declined by the day…, and I agree with the findings, the opposition would not have done better.

There are two aspects to this, the first is economic and the second is about leadership.

The economic factors for the recession have been pored over enough. We’re part of the EU, economically situated between the US, UK and Europe and we were going to have a recession. It would have been easier if we hadn’t started out in debt, particularly property debt, but Ireland has a long love affair with property and land and success brought opportunity. Clearly, we lost the run of ourselves, to the point where Anglo Irish Bank was literally unwilling to lend unless it was property backed. This blind spot has caused Ireland to have additional problems, but to be fair, it could have been worse! The recession will end eventually, and property prices will return eventually, with all forecasts pointing to long term economic and population growth in Ireland. The Irish Banks have not been over-exposed to ponzi schemes like in the US, or bankrupt investment institutions like Icelandic banks.

So, we were going into recession and try as the opposition parties (and George Lee) have convinced us that the Government have done a bad job, they have ultimately failed to convince us that they would have coped any better. It is no good just proclaiming that your policy is ‘white’ because the Government’s is ‘black’. For example, when the Government chose to keep the Irish Banks private by setting-up NAMA, the Opposition soon followed with their recommendation that we Nationalise the Banks. If the Government had chosen to Nationalise the Banks, I suspect the Opposition parties would have recommended keeping them private.

What people are really looking for is a new… any new bright idea. This hasn’t happened, but it now seems likely that a new Government will be elected by default. Any way it goes, I hope that everybody backs the elected Government (when you’re in a hole, stop digging)! And that future has to be bright and positive where entrepreneurs, risk-takers, positive people and companies are supported by the Government, the media and the people, because it’s positive people that create new jobs, new companies, new opportunities, spend money and develop the economy. Miserable, begrudgers and negative people do not create wealth and that is not the type of people, or politics we should be concentrating on… we need the whole country united in a positive future for Ireland.

That leaves us with the critical questions of leadership, and I think received wisdom is that nobody has inspired us in this election campaign. Indeed, I don’t think I can ever remember looking so hard at the leadership’s teams, searching for someone I can believe in.

The above makes slightly depressing reading, but it is the way it is. The good news? The good news is there are great world leaders, huge economies and the human spirit that will take us out of this. Irish people have had a taste of the good life and not the Government, Opposition, poor policies, Media or anyone else will hold us back for long.

And finally, if the average recession lasts about 2 years and 9 months, and our first quarter of negative growth was Q1 2008, then we are just over half way through the recession. Growth should return Q4 2010... yippee!