Will the economy bounce back in 2009?

David Bloch, CEO of the Brightwater Group comments:

Will the economy bounce back in 2009? I was delighted by the optimists out there as at the time of writing, 50% of people clearly felt it might (31% said Yes, with 19% Don't know). 50% of people felt the economy would not bounce back in 2009 and that is more to my thinking, but I hope I'm wrong!

I think 2009 will be better than the last 6 months because the panic caused by the banking crisis (reported-on 24 hours a day by the global media), will dissipate. People can only remain in a state of panic for so long until it passes - until the crisis passes, or until we become accustomed to the situation. Also, the beginning of a slow-down is always the hardest. Monthly we receive reports of X company and Y company 'down x% on budget / last quarter / last year', but eventually things stabilise at a new level. Then further reports read that X company and Y company are 'up x% on budget / last quarter / last year' and confidence returns to the market, bringing increased stability. This is what I'm expecting next year, increased stability, but no growth and that really is something. The current panic is caused by people not knowing where they're going to be in a month's time, let alone a year, so people are rightly cautious.

I understand that there are sectors and industries out there that aren't suffering, in fact there are some that are thriving, but most sections of the community aren't in good shape. Will it come back eventually? I say 100% yes! Firstly, there is real room for growth nationally and internationally, secondly, it is human nature to want to grow (see mankind's accomplishments) and thirdly, history has taught us that the economy always comes back eventually. The question I can't answer, and it appears you can't answer either, is the question of when?!